Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
