A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
